Plaster City, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

806
FXUS65 KPSR 170531
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1031 PM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 06z Aviation Discussion...

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weather system arriving later today will bring rain chances
  tonight, breezy to windy conditions, and noticeably cooler
  temperatures.

- Another weather system clipping the area Wednesday will bring
  more windy conditions and precipitation chances over the
  Arizona high terrain.

- Yet another system Thursday into Friday will at least help keep
  temperatures cooler than normal through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Latest IR satellite imagery and 500 mb objective analysis reveals a
cutoff low centered about 100 miles off the coast of San Francisco.
This low is expected to pivot northeastward and transition into
an open wave by the time it moves onshore this evening. Out ahead
of this feature, strengthening southwesterly flow is ongoing
across the Great Basin region coupled with an expansive fetch of
high clouds overspreading much of AZ. This thick high cloud cover
has kept deep layer winds from mixing down and precluding any
stronger sfc gusts. However, throughout the remainder of this
afternoon and into this evening, a potent 70-80 kt 500 mb jet will
encroach on the western half of the forecast area where the
strongest winds are expected to materialize. Advisory level winds
with gusts reaching up to 35-45 mph will become common across
portions of southeast California into western Arizona mainly from
this evening through late tonight. Stronger wind gusts up to 50-55
mph will also be possible at mountain top levels of SW Imperial
and Riverside Counties. Winds across south-central Arizona should
remain below advisory level, but high-res guidance continues to
indicate a brief 1-2 hr window of stronger gusts at or just above
40 mph ahead of an approaching cold front and associated with
shower activity which could provide extra downward momentum. The
most likely timing for these stronger wind gusts will be around
midnight to 2 AM CST. The aforementioned potent mid-level jet
will arrive in southcentral AZ late tonight and eventually rake
the high terrain NE of Phoenix. This will result in additional
advisory level winds for several hours across the mountains of E
Maricopa and S Gila County.

We then turn our attention to a cold front which will begin to surge
eastward late this evening, reaching southcentral AZ early Tuesday
morning. Low and mid-lvl moisture advection ahead of this front will
be robust with forecast PWATs increasing to around 200% of normal.
Latest CAMs show a band of showers developing initially along the
frontal boundary and progressing into SE California by this evening.
This broken band of showers will remain diffuse and may miss much of
the Imperial Valley, but looks to fill back in as the frontal
boundary approaches Maricopa County after midnight. The main window
to see measurable rainfall in the Phoenix Metro area will be between
12-6 AM CST. There is a low (10%) chance of a few embedded lightning
strikes, but the main threat with this shower activity will be gusty
winds. Showers will continue to push eastward into the high terrain
early Tuesday morning which is where higher accumulations up around
0.25"-1.00" will be possible. Much of the lower deserts are expected
to receive around 0.01"-0.25" of rainfall at most. The remainder of
Tuesday will feature a mix of clouds and sun with much cooler highs
in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees in the deserts and mid 50s in
the higher elevations.

Models are in good agreement that the next in a series of troughs
will approach our region from the northwest Tuesday night before
diving across northern Arizona and southern Utah on Wednesday.
Another round of moisture is expected to accompany the shortwave
trough, but the model trajectory looks to be further north. Thus,
best precip chances on Wednesday will be over the Arizona high
country where lowering snow levels will lead to more widespread
accumulating snowfall. Northern portions of our forecast area may
see some shower activity on Wednesday with PoPs as high as 50-60%
just to the north of Phoenix. The main impacts with this system will
again be strong gradient winds Wednesday afternoon, reaching
widespread near advisory or advisory level criteria. Additional Wind
Advisories are expected to be issued for Wednesday. Temperatures
will also become quite chilly with morning temperatures starting out
in the 40s to the lower 50s as winds start gusting over 25 mph.
Highs on Wednesday afternoon will struggle to reach the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Late week will bring even colder temperatures into the region as
the air mass behind the exiting Wednesday system will be fairly
cold and it should persist with yet another shortwave trough
potentially moving through or near our region late Thursday into
Friday. NBM forecast highs Thursday have now dropped into the
lower 60s for much of the lower deserts with morning lows Thursday
and Friday morning well into the 40s to even some 30s for rural
desert areas. Model uncertainty is still quite high for the
potential Thursday night/Friday disturbance as the GEFS is much
more bullish on precip chances compared to the EPS. NBM guidance
is still mostly on the drier side with PoPs only around 20% across
the Phoenix area to upwards of 30-40% for the Arizona higher
terrain. We are likely to have to wait another couple of days to
have a better idea on what may happen with this late week system.
Temperatures are expected to stay below normal through at least
Friday before quickly warming late weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0530Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Gusty winds, lowered CIGs, and SHRA activity resulting in MVFR
CIGs/VIS will all be weather issues, mainly through the overnight
period. South-southwest winds with gusts exceeding 20-25 kts are
occurring throughout the area out ahead of a cold front with the
potential of even stronger gusts in excess of 30-35 kts with the
SHRA activity that moves through during the overnight period. CIGs
have dropped below 6 kft with the potential to go as low as 3 kft
in SHRA activity overnight. Winds should veer out of a more due
west component behind the cold front after 10z with speeds
weakening significantly along with CIGs scattering out and
temporarily rising. However, lingering low-level moisture will
result in CIGs falling below 6 kft once again late Tuesday morning
through early Tuesday afternoon before improving above 6 kft by
the mid/late afternoon hours.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Gusty winds lingering through the overnight period as well through
late Tuesday morning and afternoon will be the primary aviation
weather concern. West to southwest winds will prevail at the
terminal sites throughout the period, with speeds gradually
weakening below 15 kts overnight before restrengthening by the
late morning/afternoon to 25-30 kts. Low-level clouds are expected
to clear out overnight with mainly SCT high cirrus decks
persisting into Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A series of weather systems will impact the region this week, the
first of which will arrive tonight and the next on track to arrive
on Wednesday. Breezy to windy conditions are expected through
Wednesday with gusts across portions of southeast California and the
Arizona high terrain exceeding 40 mph at times later today and again
on Wednesday. A cold front will progress through the region tonight,
lead to an abrupt westerly wind shift and good chances for
wetting rainfall across the high terrain of Southcentral AZ. There
is also a low chance (10%) for a few lightning strikes with this
shower activity. The best precipitation chances look to remain
over the higher terrain of northern AZ on Wednesday. MinRH values
through much of this week will range between 25-40% across the
lower deserts to 30-55% over higher terrain areas. Overnight
recoveries will be good to excellent.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Wind Advisory until 2 AM MST Tuesday for AZZ530-533.

     Wind Advisory until 11 AM MST Tuesday for AZZ557-558-563.

CA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ560-561-564-568>570.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ562.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Salerno
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Salerno